Fast Break for Traders: The Week Ahead

Week of March 9, 2009

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5 Hot Picks by Derek Gilroy of Trendphonic Futures

Derek Gilroy has been a member of the Chicago Board of Trade since 1997 and is a senior trader at Trendphonic Futures. Prior to that, Mr. Gilroy started his career working in the Grain and Financial pits on the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in 1994. From October 1997 until January 2007 Mr. Gilroy functioned as a local trader on the floor of the Exchange trading the 10-year cash basis. Currently Mr. Gilroy serves and President of Trendphonic Futures and Head Trader for their Managed Accounts.

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S&P (MAR)

With the violation of 740 last week, the short-term trend is down. If we see the S&P break last Friday's low of 666, this should trigger sell stops which would drive the market lower. We have Retail Sales and Jobless Claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. The most (only) bullish factor for the indices is that they are technically oversold.

Bonds (DEC)

The typical flight to quality you would see in this type of bear market has not been held. The bonds have found a little support at the 123 handle, which should continue as long as we don't break the 122 level. The high overnight is 127 11, with some resistance being found in the low to mid 128 handle. Setting up a possible two-way trade this week. Calling many to question a bubble type environment in the bond market.

Gold (APR)

Gold's recent rally has been even more impressive considering the gains in the dollar. Gold has already seen some selling pressures due to profit taking and mass liquidation due to margin pressures. Gold will continue to benefit from safe haven buying as global economic fears seem to be deepening. We are buyers below 910 and above 1000.

Dollar (MAR)

Dollar is trading at multi-month highs, near 90. With the World Bank warning that the global economy will shrink for the first time since WWII, traders are buying the dollar as a safe haven. We see a break above 90 coming sometime this week. If this happens, it should put pressure on stocks and commodities as a whole.

Crude (APR)

We are trading at five months highs in crude. With China's stimulus package last week and OPEC rate cuts coming this week, we see a test of $50 coming this week. We would be surprised to see crude trade above $50 due to global economic fears. Crude has been in a bullish trend ever since putting in a low at $37.50.

5 Hot Picks by Mike Seery of Manduca Trading LLC

Mike Seery began his tenure in the agricultural complex at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then transitioned off the floor to pursue an ambition of becoming a full service broker, which he succeeded in doing. Using a disciplined trading approach with a strong emphasis on risk and money management, Mr. Seery incorporates a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis, and is comfortable trading any markets his customers are interested in trading.

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April Live Cattle

Sell April Live Cattle at 8330 or better and place a stop at 8540, risking around $900.00 initially and then trail the stop per your risk tolerance.

December Eurodollar

Sell December '09 Eurodollars at the market and place a stop at 9865, risking around $800.00 initially and then trail the stop per your risk tolerance.

April Lean Hogs

Sell April Lean Hogs at the market and place a stop loss at 6500, risking around $800.00 initially and then trail the stop per your risk tolerance.

May Sugar

Buy May Sugar at the market and place a stop loss at 1242, risking around $350.00 initially and then trail the stop per your risk tolerance.

June U.S. Dollar

Buy the June U.S. Dollar Index at the market and place a stop loss at 8815, risking around $1,400.00 initially and then trail the stop per your risk tolerance.

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.