Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of January 26, 2009

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5 Hot Picks by Phil Flynn of Alaron
Phil is Vice President, Energy and General Market Analyst with Alaron Futures and Options and is one of the world's leading energy market analysts. His market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Oil Market Showdown
The oil market rebound has seemingly defied bad economic news as of late and has staged some incredible comebacks that would make even the Judd's perhaps blush. Still to change the trend my friend, oil must sustain a close above the important $50 a barrel area. Sell March crude at 4990 with a stop at 5100. If the market closes above $50 buy on a pull back to $50 with a stop at 4490.
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Gold
Nowhere to run to baby and nowhere to hide. In the everlasting quest for safety in this disgusting economic environment it seems that the treasuries have lost some favor. Massive stimulus promises seems to be shifting the markets fear way from massive deflation to the possibility of escalating inflation. Gold was impressive last week as that bastion of safety and security staging a strong technical breakout. Don't chase it but buy a break back to the 865 area. Target 930.
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Bonds
The US Treasury 30 bond was the in place to be during the last few weeks of the financial crisis. Yet now seems to be losing favor faster than a teenybopper heartthrob. The bonds seem to be putting in a major head and shoulder topping formation that if completed could send the bond futures all the way back to the 11600 area. Two ways to play it is to sell bonds near 13200 on a rebound or sell a break below 12700, or do it the easy way and put on bearish bond strategies.
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Natural Gas
If you want to see how sick the economy is just take a look at the natural gas. The gas market that usually responds favorably to cold temperatures is fading away against the backdrop of one of the coldest winters in recent memory... if natural gas cannot rally when it is well below zero, it is hard to imagine what will turn this market around. Still, it is possible that if gas falls quickly to the 410 area this week we should see a technical bounce back to 450. Buy only a hard break.
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Dow Jones Futures!
How much money can you print and how fast can you print it? The Dow has been saved twice last week with Obama stimulus talk. But talk is cheap and action speaks louder than words, so look for the Dow futures to break down this week and test the lows. Sell the Dow futures at 8100 target 7770.

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5 Hot Picks by Mike Seery of Manduca Trading LLC
Manduca TradingMike Seery began his tenure in the agricultural complex at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then transitioned off the floor to pursue an ambition of becoming a full service broker, which he succeeded in doing. Using a disciplined trading approach with a strong emphasis on risk and money management, Mr. Seery incorporates a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis, and is comfortable trading any markets his customers are interested in trading.

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Certainly these futures markets may experience a pullback, but it appears to me that the commodity markets are on a sustainable upswing. If this is the case, I suggest these five recommendations:

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Gold
Buy the April Gold at the market with a stop loss at 835.00.
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Soybeans
Buy the March Soybeans at the market with a stop loss at 9.57.
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Coffee
Buy the March Coffee at the market with a stop loss at 118.00.
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Cotton
Buy March Cotton at the market with a stop loss at 46.00.
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Crude Oil
Buy March Crude Oil at the market with a stop loss at 39.00.

Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.
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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.