Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of December 22, 2008

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Phil Flynn of Alaron
Phil is Vice President, Energy and General Market Analyst with Alaron Futures and Options and is one of the world's leading energy market analysts. His market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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HOT
Natural Gas
Frosted window panes and candy canes normally mean a strong natural gas market. Yet despite Jack Frost nipping at our nose, Natural Gas refuses to pop. The problem is weak industrial demand. Still gas should find some pop in the low $500 area. Buy Feb. at 501 stop 475.
HOT
Oil
Gaps are meant to be filled! That is what the Grinch told Cindy Lu Who. Oil went out with a monster gap on the January to February rollover. I think that gap will be filled. Maybe not right away but I think it will. Sell February Crude near $49 stop $52. 
HOT
Corn and Beans
Corn is king but it seems king for a day. Corn after free-falling from record highs seemed to bottom near $3.00 a bushel. Yet after a quick spike near $4.00 failed. To me that is a sign that Corn will retest $3.00 Sell Corn at 387 target $3.20.

March Beans trying to rally look like they will rollover and fail. Sell March Beans near 880 stop over 900.
HOT
Bonds and Notes
Can the FED find enough ink to keep printing the money? Bonds and Notes have been on fire. Yet there are signs we have come too far to fast. Look to sell March Ten Year Notes near 128000 stop 129000.
HOT
Gold
Gold is a lost sole. Should it break because of deflationary pressure or rise because of a falling dollar. Right now we are closer to sell. Play the range, sell Feb Gold near 890 and buy near $740.

 

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Sterling Smith of FuturesOne
Sterling Smith is developer and publisher of the Strategic Traders Index, and a 17-year market veteran. Registered as a CTA he is often quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Down Jones News, Bloomberg, Reuters, and has been a frequent guest of WFLD Fox News Chicago. Sterling works with clients of all sizes to help improve their trading.

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HOT
Currencies
Last week featured one of the most volatile weeks ever in these markets. The good news is, with the two holidays falling in the middle of the week this may subdue trading some. However, a lower close today on the March Dollar Index, in particular a close below 80.50, will likely signal another wave lower. This will result in a rally particularly in the Euro Currency. 
HOT
Bonds/Notes/Eurodollars
It's a bird, it's a plane...it's a super contract! Aerospace engineers everywhere are looking at these trying to build things that go up this fast. Money looking to turn away from risk will probably be about equal to money that finds these low yields less than tasty, so I am looking for sideways to upside action in here.
HOT
Crude Oil
Crude Oil's January contract went off the board Friday, trading an amazing $8.49 lower than February's contract. This is not bullish. The dollar plunges and crude keeps sinking. This is not bullish. It appears to me that this market is on the way back to historical norms, so I am expecting prices to continue moving lower, and this pattern to continue for quite a while. Eventually this will help the economy in the broader sense, as long as the price keeps dropping. Let's hope in the New Year that our leaders in Washington do everything to enable lower energy prices.
HOT
S&P/NASDAQ/Dow
Perhaps Santa will have a small rally in his sleigh for the end of the year, but mostly I am looking for choppy and mildly bullish action through the end of the year. 
HOT
Silver & Gold
While silver is as volatile as anything else, so it requires a wide stop, I can see silver which is cheap compared to gold, having a little bit of a thin market bounce. Nervousness and unpleasant volatility in the currency markets can be supportive to gold here, so I am looking for prices to firm over the holiday period.

I would like to wish all of my readers a happy holiday season, and lets get ready for 2009, which I am sure will feature many surprises (hopefully some good) and exciting markets.
a FutureSource newsletter
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