Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of December 8, 2008

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Sterling Smith of FuturesOne
Sterling Smith is developer and publisher of the Strategic Traders Index, and a 17-year market veteran. Registered as a CTA he is often quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Down Jones News, Bloomberg, Reuters, and has been a frequent guest of WFLD Fox News Chicago. Sterling works with clients of all sizes to help improve their trading.

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HOT
S&P 500/Dow/Nasdaq
We are going to start the week off with a bounce, and a big one, now whether or not it sticks is the big question. My thoughts are that it can for a limited time, perhaps though Wednesday, after that we will have to see.
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Bonds, Notes, etc.
Toil and trouble this looks like a bubble. While the world bubble has been massively overused of late, the huge run up in here should have a pretty solid and rather swift correction for at least the first half of the week, as long as the stock market can avoid too much trouble.
HOT
Crude Oil
Crude is getting very oversold and I am looking for 1-3 day bounce in here, again as long as the stock market holds up. I think in the big picture we have much more downside in here, possibly the 22.00 to 26.00 area by February.
HOT
Corn
Corn should be able to manage 30-40 cent relief rally here, as its chart looks a lot like crude oil. Here to I think we will see prices work lower of the next 10 weeks, with little pops here and there.
HOT
Copper
Copper shares a chart that looks like crude and corn, which means it too is oversold and we can see some type of relief rally before we head lower.

The bottom line is, I am looking for a normalization of commodity prices, meaning that prices will return to areas closer to their historical norms. The world discovered very bitterly back in July that the world's economies and consumers cannot function with $148 crude, $8.00 corn and the rest. The stock market is not out of the woods yet, but we are closer to the end of the trouble than we are to the beginning. We should look for the US economy to begin a recovery in April...assuming Mr. Obama and our leaders in Washington will do everything they can to keep a lid on energy prices.

 

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5 Hot Picks by Lee Gaus of EFG Group
Lee GausLee Gaus has thirty years of experience in the commodities industry. In 1992, Lee established EFG Group along with his two partners who are long-time friends. Since then, Lee has traveled the U.S. conducting seminars and trading meetings for retail traders and commodity offices.

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I continue to be bearish this market, as it appears to me that every attempt to put in an area of consolidation fails. The market needs a fundamental reason to reverse the present bearish trend, and until that happens I will remain suspicious of any significant rally in most commodities. Understand the risk as these markets can become even more volatile as more and more traders leave for the holidays.

HOT
Soybeans
Sell March Soybeans around $8.35 for the aggressive traders and $8.50 for the more conservative trader.
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Soybean Meal
Sell May Soybean Meal around $258 for the aggressive trader and around $270 for the more conservative trader.
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Cattle
Sell April Cattle around $87.50 as I find it difficult to believe a heavy demand for meats with a projected unemployment rate of 9% by the third quarter of next year.
HOT
Coffee
Sell March Coffee around 110.00 for the aggressive trader and around 115.00 for the more conservative trader.
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Copper
Sell March Copper around 1.54 for the aggressive trader and around 1.56 for the more conservative trader.
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