Fast Break for Traders: The Week Ahead

Week of November 3, 2008

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5 Picks by Tom Zabroske, Walsh Trading

Tom Zabroske has been in the futures markets since 1978. Tom has lectured nationally and internationally on market cycles as well as other subjects, and has been a featured speaker at many futures conferences over the years. He writes a market commentary Monday thru Thursday concerning market cycles titled "Circuli Dominare," which is available through Walsh Publications Inc. Tom is currently the Senior Trader/Analyst as well as Director of Research for Walsh Trading Inc.

WALSH TRADE VOICE: A daily audio market report
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Soybeans

In the week ahead the soybean complex should complete the recent rally and a correction should manifest itself. The ideal day for the SH (March Soybeans) to peak is Tuesday, November 04. Look to establish a short position in the SH either with a test of resistance at 1025 or a close on the day below support at 935. This break should be corrective in nature and is likely to sustain itself for a couple of weeks.

Soybean Meal

In the week ahead the soybean complex should complete the recent rally and a correction should manifest itself. The ideal day for the SMZ (December Soybean Meal) to peak was last Monday, October 27. Look to establish a short position in the SMZ at current prices. Resistance on the daily time frame is at 287.0-288.0. This break should be corrective in nature and is likely to sustain itself for a couple of weeks.

Corn

In the week ahead the corn market should complete the recent rally and a correction should manifest itself. The ideal day for the CZ (December Corn) to peak is Tuesday, November 04. Look to establish a short position in the CZ at current levels. This break should be corrective in nature and is likely to sustain itself for a couple of weeks.

Sugar

In the week ahead the sugar market should complete the recent rally and a correction should manifest itself. The ideal day for the SBH (March Sugar) to peak is Thursday, November 06. Look to establish a short position in the SBH at current levels. This break should be corrective in nature and is likely to culminate the middle of next week.

Canadian Dollar

The CDZ (December Canadian Dollar) made a weekly reversal last week and is currently trading at support based on the monthly time frame at 8300-8350. Long positions should be established. A close on the day in the CDZ above 8500 would portend a move up to the 8800-8900 level.

5 Hot Picks by Sterling Smith of FuturesOne

Sterling Smith is developer and publisher of the FuturesOne Power Index, and a 15-year market veteran. Registered as a CTA he is a noted Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa analyst. Sterling works with clients of all sizes to help improve their trading.

Do markets behave differently in election years?
Get these results and more with the COMPLIMENTARY Markets and Elections Report!

S&P 500

I am looking for comparatively quiet action Monday and Tuesday, as the market quiets in front of the election. The market normally bounces after elections and a victory by Senator McCain would probably add some zip to this. However confusion similar to 2000 would leave a very different picture.

Crude Oil

The trend is your friend and the trend is decidedly down. However, we do see some slight signs of bottoming and we could have a slight bounce here, and I think a win by Senator Obama might lead to some short covering here and a slightly larger bounce than the minimal one I am looking for.

US Dollar

I think we can see some continued strength in the rising dollar through the week. The US Dollar's massive bear market started when President Bush took office, and the only thing we know for sure about this election is that he is leaving office.

30-Year Bonds

30-Year Bonds are at crossroads here, a very large triple top with solid support just underneath where we are. I am looking for a small, limited bounce over the first couple of days this week, and the downtrend resume. No matter who wins the White House, we are still going to have a Congress that spends like sailor on shore leave, so there won't be any shortage of deficits or bonds.

Metals

Metals leave me bearish. Gold has had track record of bouncing after close elections, but given the real weakness that has been so strong here. Only a scenario like 2000 will lend any strength, and that is, I suppose a possibility, but not a likely one. Silver and copper should remain weak through week, and copper looks particularly bearish.

Presidential Election: Independent voters not liking the idea of a Democratic House, Senate and White House swing the outcome to Senator McCain by a nose.

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.