Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of July 14, 2008

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Matt Johnson of Target Futures

Matt Johnson In the futures industry since 1996, Matt Johnson got his start working with retail clients. In 2000 he established Cytrade Financial, L.L.C., and independent introducing broker registered with the CFTC and NFA member. Matt manages the firm and offers his brokers and clients trading suggestions primarily using futures options. For more information on Matt's trading, please visit www.targetfutures.com.

HOT
September US 30-Year Bonds
I'm in sell the rallies mode on the T-Bonds. In the September options, I like a USU8 115/112 Put spread for approximately 44 ticks ($687.50) with an over 4:1 risk reward ratio. You can sell a USU8 120 call for 24 ticks to help pay for the trade.
HOT
September  Crude
Down drafts in the crude have been short lived, but I believe we are still range bound and currently at the high end of that range. In the September options, I like a CLU8 135/130 Put spread for approximately 130 points ($1300) with nearly a 4:1 risk reward ratio. You can sell a CLQ8 170 Call for about 130 points as well to fully pay for the trade.
HOT
September Euro Currency
The September Euro Currency also appears to be range bound and currently at the high end of the range. In the August options which are based on the September futures, I like an ECQ8 156/153 Put spread for approximately 55 points ($687.50) with over a 5:1 risk reward ratio. You can sell an ECQ8 162 Call for about 40 points to help pay for the trade.
HOT
August Soybeans
Favorable weather for grain crops could send beans significantly lower over the next week. In the August options, I like an SQ8 1560/1510 Put spread for approximately 14 cents ($700) with an almost 4:1 risk reward ratio. You can sell an SQ8 1700 Call for approximately 8 cents to help pay for the trade.
HOT
August Gold
Gold has been on the rampage with weakness in the equities markets and continued commodities strength. But I think it's time for a pullback. In the August options I like a GCQ8 950/920 Put spread for approximately 700 points ($700) with an over 4:1 risk reward ratio. You can sell a GCQ8 1010 Call for approximately 450 points to help pay for the trade.

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Eric Reinholtz of DAW Trading

Eric Reinholtz Eric Reinholtz is a Senior Market Strategist with DAW Trading. Mr. Reinholtz relies heavily on his expertise in charting markets for his exact entry and exit scenarios. Mr. Reinholtz's focus targets very realistic money-making strategies more so than cryptic buy & sell signals that can get flashy publicity, but have little to do with actual portfolio alignment. He believes a professional way of approaching the markets should emphasize scaling-in during serious purges (ideally after bases are built), and scaling-out gradually into strength (ideally into extended parabolic moves), happily not worrying about "milking" the last percent out of a move.

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HOT
S&P 500
'Over-the-top' bearishness has been my stance for several months. Recommendation for long-term short positions has been my recommendation going back to when the S&P's were still trading in the 1400's. Daily readers have had huge success day trading from the short-side of the market, and I fully expect that will continue until the 'out-of-control' crude oil calms down. Traders who are not already short should sign-up today for my daily report and find out how you can take advantage of this bearish trend.
HOT
Gold
Long-term gold traders who re-entered gold around the $870 level should move up stops to $922. Finally we can stop talking about the "Brick Wall" resistance located at between $950-955; market took out this level this Fed week and closed above it. With the Fed apparently needing to 'print more money' to deal with credit issues, expect continued weakness from the US dollar and bottom fishers in that market to be wiped out this summer, boasting confidence in gold and silver.
HOT
Feeder Cattle
Feeders have had a trouble breaking through the 114 level in the August contract or 118 in the November contract, (this level has been previously highlighted for Fast Break readers), setting up short positions last week. Traders who are not short should enter at market prices in the November contract, risking to 118.30. Ideally over the next several weeks market will come back to lower standard deviation envelope.
HOT
Corn
December corn came down last week and filled a 'gap' left several weeks ago. With Crude oil prices hitting new all-time highs this past week, it shouldn't be long until corn, and the majority of the grain complex for that matter, it follow suit. Traders can look for an option strategy to enter long.
HOT
Nikkei
Last update I recommended traders to liquidate all long positions, and reverse with short positions. Nikkei, along with the majority of global indices, have been under tremendous fire lately due to energy and credit concerns.  Traders who took recommendation to enter short as close to 13750 as possible should move down stops at this point to 13250, or take profits as close to 12800 level as possible.
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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.