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| 5 Hot Picks by Sterling Smith of FuturesOne |
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| Sterling Smith is developer and publisher of the FuturesOne Power Index, and a 15-year market veteran. Registered as a CTA he is a noted Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa analyst. Sterling works with clients of all sizes to help improve their trading. |
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| The US Dollar Index scored it first outside up week in a very long time last week. Could the dollar be poised for a bounce? Quite possibly with the Fed's heavy intervention last week. While we aren't past all the problems, the dollar has become deeply oversold. If we can manage three closes this week above 73.25 we should see stability here, if not a rally. | |
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| S&P 500 looks better here to, and if we can get a stable dollar we should see firmness here, has a heavy congestion bottom has developed over the last month. | |
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| Could it be that the American driver is about to get a break at the pump? If the dollar can stabilize, and even dare I say rally, we could see continued down side action here. If the market can fall below 100, and stay below for a bit, we should see oil prices move lower. | |
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| 30 year bonds are very overbought at these levels, and the yield is not very attractive, and three closes below 120 could get the bears going here, and a little help from the Stock Market would help bring the bonds down from these high levels. | |
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Gold as pulled back better than $100 from the highs made just a week ago, and while the fall from grace was severe, gold takes the stairs up and the elevator down. While I think trade will be volatile, there is a possibility that a longer term high has been put in.
It is important to recognize that these ideas are largely predicated on a central idea, that being the US dollar last week put in a major low, and that the bear market that has been in place largely since 2002 is coming to an end. Only time will tell, but all bull and bear markets do eventually change direction. | |
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| 5 Hot Picks by Vic Lespinasse of Cytrade Financial | |
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 Vic Lespinasse has been analyzing the commodities markets through a career spanning 35 years of the industry's most explosive growth and dynamic change. Vic is recognized as an authoritative commentator on commodities with literally hundreds of appearances on all major television networks and radio stations. His observations on the markets have been quoted by numerous newspapers including the Wall Street Journal. | |
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| Wheat's reign as the mercurial grain shows no sign of ending. Witness last week's early rally followed by a total collapse later in the week. In this market you better be dead right or you'll be just plain dead. Expect more gyrations this week with a strong downward bias if the hedge funds keep unwinding their long commodities/short $ positions. /font> | |
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| The influence of other markets, such as energy, metals and currencies, broke the corn market severely last week. However, expect spring weather and the huge USDA planting intentions-quarterly stocks report on March 31st to assume center stage over the next couple of weeks. Also expect the corn/bean/spring wheat acreage "race" to secure adequate acreage to heat up now that spring is here. | |
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Beans plunged last week and could continue lower initially this week if Dalian, China bean complex futures continue falling. Growing harvest pressure from South America and the very bearish looking bean chart could also propel beans lower ahead of the USDA March 31st planting intentions report. Traders will also watch the direction of the energy and currency markets whose extreme recent sell-off inspired considerable selling in beans last week and remain a potent daily influence on beans. | |
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| Meal was the only feeble ray of hope the bulls had in the grains late last week, gaining sharply on a spread basis versus oil due to large scale meal/oil spreading. Outright, meal was not nearly as weak as the rest of the bean complex. However, its chart pattern still looks bearish so expect more downside this week. | |
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Oil was under extreme duress last week following the collapse of the Dalian, China bean and palm oil futures markets and the steep drop in crude oil prices with its biodiesel link. More of the same can be expected this week unless there is a recovery in Dalian and/or the crude oil market. Oil, as well as wheat, corn, beans and meal could be oversold and ripe for a technical bounce this week but don't anticipate it-better to wait until these markets demonstrate at least a nascent turn-around before covering short positions. Otherwise, it's like trying to catch a falling knife, which is non-habit forming! | |
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