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| 5 Hot Picks by Arc Capital Management | |
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 Arc Capital Management is an independent brokerage and consulting firm offering firms both hedging and speculative services in futures, OTC and the foreign exchange markets. Arc associates combine for over 50 years of experience providing professionals in financial, agricultural and energy markets with traditional services as well as cutting edge electronic execution, customized research packages and full service professionals. |
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A continuation of the weaker trend in the US dollar is giving many traders no choice but to continue buying precious metals. Without any fundamental changes expected in the US dollar in the coming week, we expect silver to continue higher. A move over the recent May contract highs around $21.32 could lead to a substantial breakout which shows no current technical resistance until the $24 area. Support currently shows up around $20.38, $19.50 and $19.03. - Weinmann | |
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Technicals continue to give us one of the smoothest trends we have seen in years. Lower stock levels added to the market's strength but seasonally, we should be expecting a fair drop in stocks over the next few weeks. A warmer weather front over the next 7-10 days could give longs enough of a reason for some profit taking in the coming week but the trend is your friend so breaks could be short lived. Support in April comes in around 9.950 followed by 9.380. First level of resistance could be near 10.380. - Petillo | |
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The planting expectations report from Informa for corn is pegged at 87.5 million acres. That is off the 93.6 million acres that the USDA had last year. The USDA needed around 90 million acres to meet production expectations. Add the fact that we need a record yield of 153 per acre, I still see a bullish trend underlining this years Corn crop for the week and beyond. Possible 600-640 Corn in December is possible. A little delay in plantings due to wet weather mixed with high root developments in the corn stalks could get us there in a hurry. I'm preparing for higher prices not lower because the weak US dollar has America on sale and grains are in demand. - Sweeney
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Technicals have finally caught up with the weaker fundamentals as the April contract broke 56.50 last weak. Substantial premiums in the futures pricing over cash combined with weak technicals should give us a new surge in volume this week. Everything points to weaker prices, especially in June. April vs. June spread activity expected to be high as well. April support near 54.75 followed by 51.00. June could see as much as a 10 point break on a small bounce. - Petillo | |
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This Tuesday's FOMC meeting will probably give the market some fundamental support. A 0.5% interest rate cut are most economists expected. Some others may think 0.75% to 1% cut. Federal Reserve's last week action and New York Federal Reserve's rescue of Bear Stearns through JP Morgan tells the financial market that they are very serious and will do whatever they can to solve the liquidity problem. From the technical perspective, the S & P market is drifting sideways. There are supports already being built around the 1280-1290 level; further lower support at 1260 level. However, there are resistances all along the up side, 1340-1350; 1400-1410; 1425-1435. Overall,
the S&P market should trade sideways to slightly higher before the long week-end starts. - Yao | |
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| 5 Hot Picks by Eric Reinholtz of DAW Trading | |
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Eric Reinholtz is a Senior Market Strategist with DAW Trading. Mr. Reinholtz relies heavily on his expertise in charting markets for his exact entry and exit scenarios. Mr. Reinholtz’s focus targets very realistic money-making strategies more so than cryptic buy & sell signals that can get flashy publicity, but have little to do with actual portfolio alignment. He believes a professional way of approaching the markets should emphasize scaling-in during serious purges (ideally after bases are built), and scaling-out gradually into strength (ideally into extended parabolic moves), happily not worrying about "milking" the last percent out of a move
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In last update, posted February 28, I highlighted that a move back below 1360 level would prove to be fatal for S&P March futures; thus ending the systematic up move. After closing below 1360 in the March futures the market has not been able to get above 1346. Day traders are again reminded to stay extremely open-minded in terms of trading both sides of the market. Current price target for the $SPX, according to point and figure charts, comes in at about 1230-1225 level. The 45-degree trend line, (or what I have highlighted for my regular audience as the "Brick Wall"), coming off the December highs at 1520 provides resistance at 1330; only a move in the $SPX back
above here would end current negative formation. | |
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| Anticipation for next week's Fed meeting has taken the 30-year bond back near contract highs. Spread between the 30-year bond and 5-year note has rallied to about 160. Traders should sell the 30-year and buy the 5-year note as protection. Ratio of spread should be done at 1:1 ratio. Risk on this trade around sixteen ticks, or $500 a contract before commissions and fees. | |
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Japan's stock market paid the price for the US slowdown in consumer goods. High energy prices, along with a soaring yen, has resulted in the NKM8 trading in downward spiral. The long-term indicators that I follow put the NIKKEI at a reading of 100% sell; which means it's time to do the opposite. Japan is likely going to be one of the winners of the US stimulus package and 'tax fund' season. The Bank of Japan is sure to take action, like the almost always do, to intervene and stop the raising currency. A rally back above 12220 in the NKM8 would likely end the negative pattern. | |
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Ranchers continue to be the big loser from increases in ethanol and out of control wheat prices. Selling into rallies has worked brilliantly so far this year; and I am suspecting the same can be said for the next few weeks. The only caution I have against short positions in feeders comes in the form of the March 31st USDA planting intentions report. I am expecting large increases in areas from last year's record plantings. Traders who are not already short can use a rally to 110.50 to 110.75 as an opportunity to enter market, with protective buy stops above 112.20. | |
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I recommend traders find strategies that provide short positions ahead of the much-anticipated USDA report. New formed double top at the $5.80 level should contain any rally attempts before March 31st. I suspect that market will trade back under trend line support and make holding long positions a little more difficult than it has been over the last six months.
DISCLAIMER: Future, forex and options trading involves substantial risk. The valuation of futures, forex and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or an implied promise, assurance or implication that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this correspondence is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way assured. No assurance of any kind is implied or possible
where projections of future conditions are attempted.
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