Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of February 25, 2008

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5 Hot Picks by Sterling Smith of FuturesOne
Sterling Smith is developer and publisher of the FuturesOne Power Index, and a 15-year market veteran. Registered as a CTA he is a noted Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa analyst. Sterling works with clients of all sizes to help improve their trading.

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Gold

We look poised to go higher, and I would not be surprised to see us approaching $1,000 by the end of the week. Solid performances from copper and silver can lend support here.
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Coffee
This can be a big market...we have all of the technical signs and fundamentals which could send us soaring again this week. Be careful with this one, as it could prove to be a very wild ride.
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Canadian Dollar 
After pushing up to 110 late last year, we have spent the last couple of months pulling back and chopping around. However, strong mineral and grain markets look poised to push us higher over the next 2-3 weeks.
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S&P's
Friday's massive recovery in the last half hour of trading could set the tone for this week, and I am looking for some stabilization, and quite possibly a strong rally later in the week.
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Eurodollars 
Here I am looking at the Sep or Dec contracts (EDU8 or EDZ8). If we get a stable to stronger stock market, I think we could see a rather surprising decline here.

Elliott Wave

2008 Commodity Trading Guide

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5 Hot Picks by Matt Johnson of Target Futures

Matt Johnson In the futures industry since 1996, Matt Johnson got his start working with retail clients. In 2000 he established Cytrade Financial, L.L.C., and independent introducing broker registered with the CFTC and NFA member. Matt manages the firm and offers his brokers and clients trading suggestions primarily using futures options. For more information on Matt's trading, please visit www.targetfutures.com.

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March Japanese Yen 
March Yen has been in a rather narrow channel, but with less than two weeks until expiration, there are some inexpensive opportunities in the March currency options. I like a JYH8 94/96 put spread for approximately $400 with over a 6:1 risk reward ratio!
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April Crude Oil 
That bounce off the lows two weeks ago was enough to make your head spin! I have little doubt that eventually we will be comfortably above the $100 level in the front month contract, but in order for this rally to stick, I think we need to look for some pullback. A CLJ8 94/92 put spread is running approximately $500 which would give us a 4:1 risk reward ratio. As I've said before, don't be greedy. The short side in the crude market is dubious at best. Take your profits when they're offered.
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May Soybeans 
The soybean rampage continues, and all indications are it is going potentially a lot higher. This is one of these situations where you have to throw all of your overbought indicators out the window, close your eyes and hit the buy button. A SK8 1560/1660 call spread (feels funny even typing this) should be going for approximately $1000 for a 5:1 risk reward ratio.
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March E-Mini S&P 500 
I do not like the recent action in US equities at all. I believe the longer we stay in this sideways-down channel, the more likely we are to see a healthy correction. Ultimately some good capitulation will be good for the market, and I personally welcome it. Looking at an ESH8 1300/1260 put spread for approximately $350 with an over 5:1 risk reward ratio.
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December Cocoa 
Has anyone looked at a cocoa chart lately, impressive to say the least. But as they say, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Implied volatility in cocoa puts is quite high (not surprising I suppose), but they still seem relatively inexpensive with so long to go until expiration. A CCZ8 2000 put is trading for approximately $400. This was the price level in the futures as recently as the first of the year, so while this seems like a bit of a long shot, I think it's a good one.
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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.