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Crude Oil

Recently crude oil prices have been sky rocketing. Supplies have been increasing recently. In my opinion we have seen crude make its top in the near term and it should break soon. I would sell Dec crude now at around 85.75 and use a stop at 86.75. This is more a short term play. The main reason for record high oil prices has been the falling dollar we can expect that to continue. You will be swimming against the tide with this play so be ready to take profits at around the $78 range and get out. Oil may be over $100 a barrel in less then a year.

Sugar

Sugar is looking to go much higher. With the ethanol boom in South America continuing it will eat into sugar supplies. Expect sugar to go up. Buy in at 10.15 and use a stop of 10.00.

Dollar

The fed was in a lose-lose position. They decided to take the move which they feel would help the economy. They cut interest rates by a full 50 basis points. This has fed inflation. It's gotten so bad that the Canadian dollar is now trading above the US dollar. Expect this to continue. I would short the dollar index at 77.90. Use a stop at 77.40.

Dow Jones

The Dow has taken a small beating recently. We may already be in a recession. The Dow is grossly over valued. Short the Dow at 13470 and use a stop at 13500.

Gold

Look for gold to move lower this week on profit taking. Sell gold at 754 using a stop at 768. Look to take profits at 736. Like crude oil the long term out look for gold is bullish so make sure to use stops and be ready to take profits.

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Stock Indices

The stock market had a tough week that ended with a thud on Friday. With the jump in the VIX (volatility Index) I think it is a great time to sell put spreads out of the money. Sell the December 1250/1300 put spreads and look for the market to stabilize well above the summer lows.

Interest Rates

Treasury bonds had a very strong week fueled by the weakness in stocks. Play contrarian here and short the December Bonds. Place a stop 5 tics above the September 10th high of 114-08. If stocks calm down, the flight to quality in the bonds should subside and the bonds should fall.

Grains

December wheat rallied its limit of 30 cents on Friday while soybeans lost ground and closed down 10 cents on the day. With January struggling to stay above $10 I think it is a good time to sell some calls. Sell the $11.40 January calls; they closed at approximately 10 cents or $500. If the market sells off on the open on Monday don't be afraid to sell the $11.00 or 11.20 calls instead.

Metals

The strong uptrend in gold continues unabated. Go with the trend in the metals and place your stops just below the 30 day moving average. Take advantage of the early sell off this morning. For today, that means buying December gold and placing your stop around $740. You will make money if the trend continues and not lose too much if the average is broken.

Canadian Dollar

It is time for a top in the Canadian Dollar. Since August the CD has rallied more than 10 cents. Either sell December calls above the market or short the futures and place stops 50 tics above the contract highs. This currency has rallied too far and too fast.