Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of October 15, 2007

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Lee Gaus of EFG Group
Lee GausLee Gaus has thirty years of experience in the commodities industry. In 1992, Lee established EFG Group along with his two partners who are long-time friends. Since then, Lee has traveled the U.S. conducting seminars and trading meetings for retail traders and commodity offices.

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HOT

December Cocoa

Suggest one look for a place to short December Cocoa. My models while not perfect by any means do suggest a strong bias to the down side for Cocoa. It will take a close Friday October 19, above 1961 to reverse the trend.

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December Cattle

I will be looking for a place to sell December Cattle. December Cattle will need a close on Friday October 19, above 102.50 to reverse the dominate trend.

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December Bonds

I think the party is over look for December Bonds to head lower. It will take a close above 115.31 on Friday October 19, to reverse the dominate indicator.

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December Japanese Yen

Looking to sell the Yen hopefully on a dead cat bounce. The market needs a close above 8657 on a weekly close to reverse the primary indicator.

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Silver, Gold, Copper

Take your pick and I suggest looking for a place to buy your favorite metal. Gold needs a weekly close below 682, Silver needs a weekly close below 1300, and Copper needs a weekly close below 3.3535 to reverse their dominate trends.

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5 Hot Picks by Michael Levin of Platinum Trading
Michael Levin is a Consultant to Platinum Trading Solutions. He has been in the Financial markets since 1981, having been a broker and trader on the PHLX Equity Options floor in the 1980's and ran trading firms in New York in the 1990's to 2002. Mike briefly set a record in the options trading division of the US trading Championships years ago.

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HOT

Energies

Oil is now in an area where I fell comfortable selling into. Color me short here, today the 15th at $83.50 the Jan 08 contract. I expect a pullback into the high $70's. As for Nat Gas, a few weeks ago I said I would buy pullbacks on Dec Nat Gas to the $7.65 area and then like to see a run to $8.40-ish. So far it held that $7.6 area and ran to $8.15, then back again and now it's turning up again. I'd sell into any strength and sit on the sidelines.

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Metals

The metals have had a great rally with most sitting on the sidelines watching the run up and those long, sitting and watching their gains... Lots of watching. don't see profit taking yet... May be the time to take a breather here. Let go of Gold above $760 and catch it pulling back $25 cheaper. For Silver, it never got to my $13 target, but did pull back, I still expect weakness, but I wouldn't trade it here.

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Grains

My recc. to short wheat last month cost me only $.20 but it did it in a hurry and I took the loss and never re entered. Man does this look like a head and shoulders top like I ever saw one... I'd short any rally here, but I'm sure everyone else sees this too...

Soybeans are a short here for the Jan 08 contract now at $10.02 as I expect the entire grain complex to liquidate a bit here, taking prices down hard..

Corn has been on a wild ride, just which way is it going, up or down? Each week it breaks one way, the next week its vaulting higher or collapsing. To me, it's bottoming here as Ethanol prices have plummeted, but I am not making an official call here.

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Livestock

Live Cattle could not break that triple top in the Dec contract and the herd retreated in orderly fashion... Hogs kept getting slaughtered and are at the bottom of a gently curving trendline. Dare we nibble down here for a pop? Yes, at $.5835 I like them for a quick 2 cent scalp.

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Indexes

It looks like the S&P 500 Dec could trade down to the 1510-20 area, watch out. The Nasdaq has run 300 points from the Aug low, maybe a breather here and a 5% pull back is warranted. The Russell might be coming back to a good buying area too, just let option expiration week pass and the dust will settle a little and the trading a little less volatile...

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.