Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of September 17, 2007

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Matt Johnson of Cytrade Financial

Matt Johnson In the futures industry since 1996, Matt Johnson got his start working with retail clients at Lind Waldock and Man Financial. In 2000 he established Cytrade Futures Inc. which later became Cytrade Financial, L.L.C., and independent introducing broker registered with the CFTC and NFA member. Matt manages the firm and offers his brokers and clients trading suggestions primarily using futures options.

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HOT

November Crude

With an $80 print out of their system in the nearby contract, I think it's time for the bulls to take a breather here. I like buying a CLX7 $75/$70 put spread for about $1000 with a 5:1 risk-reward ratio.

HOT

December British Pound

While our models remain very strong in almost all currencies versus the US Dollar, the British Pound model has gone negative. This could be an early bird gets the worm trade on some general improvement in the US Dollar across the board. I like the BPV7 198 Puts for about $600 or the BPV7 196 Puts for about $300.

HOT

December Corn

Our corn model remains positive, but Dec corn has fizzled out in this high $3.50's area several times, so I like the short side. There are some October options expiring this Friday which offer an excellent short term trade opportunity CV7 350 puts should open around 4-5 cents this morning. Those looking for something longer term, look at the CZ7 320 Puts for about $250.

HOT

December US 30 Year Bonds

At the end of last week, the bond market seems to be pricing in a 25 basis point cut only by the Fed on Tuesday. Look for language where the Fed remains worried about inflation. This could send the bond market tumbling. October options expire this Friday, but the big show should be tomorrow. I like the USV7 112 Puts for approximately $300.

HOT

September E-Mini S&P 500

Yes, September. Option expiration is this week, and traders should use September options to their full benefit. With the most likely scenario being a 25 basis point cut, traders should be optimistic, at least short term, with this result. I like an ESU7 1490 Call for about $500. Do not be greedy with profits on this trade as a rally may be short lived.

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Lee Gaus of EFG Group
Lee GausLee Gaus has thirty years of experience in the commodities industry. In 1992, Lee established EFG Group along with his two partners who are long-time friends. Since then, Lee has traveled the U.S. conducting seminars and trading meetings for retail traders and commodity offices.

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HOT

Wheat

The wheat market remains the market to watch in the grain sector. Has wheat put a top, or merely taking a pause before going even higher? Wish I had the answer to that one. If I get a confirmed sell signal this week I will take a flyer on the short side, but only with a confirmed sell signal. I will be watching the spread between wheat and soybeans very closely. If wheat gets back to with forty to fifty cents of soybeans I will be recommending long soybeans short wheat on a spread.

HOT

Canadian Dollar

I like the Canadian Dollar for the long side. I will need to see a weekly break of about four hundred points from last Fridays close to turn my models negative. Suggest looking at the December Canadian Dollar around the 9700 level.

HOT

Oats

Traders somewhat new to the markets may want to look at December Oats from the long side. I will need to see a break of nearly thirty cents on a weekly basis to reverse my long term model. Consider buying December Oats around $2.75.

HOT

Gold

I like gold also from the long side on breaks to or near support. I will need a break on a weekly basis of nearly sixty dollars to reverse the long term trend. If inclined to buy December Gold you may want to look around the $715 to $710 area.

HOT

Coffee

To my eye it looks like coffee has been in a sideways funk for at least ten weeks if not longer. Buy here I am again taking a whack at the long side of the market. If it stays in the sideways funk the bad news is you won't make much, and the good news you may not lose much. Again the aforementioned statement is based on coffee staying in the sideways funk. If you are still thinking of buying coffee consider buying December Coffee around the 118/119 area.

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.