 | | 5 Hot Picks by Lee Gaus of EFG Group |
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| Lee Gaus has thirty years of experience in the commodities industry. In 1992, Lee established EFG Group along with his two partners who are long-time friends. Since then, Lee has traveled the U.S. conducting seminars and trading meetings for retail traders and commodity offices. |
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I will be watching this market very closely this week. My short term model has turned lower, and needs a close on Thursday above $8.42 to reverse the trend. My long term model continues higher, but a close below $8.42 on Friday turns the long term model lower. |
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All my models continue to point higher. It will take a Thursday close below $6.63 to turn the short term model lower and a close below $6.46 on a Friday to turn the long term model lower. I suggest taking a look at buying December Gold at around $670-$672 level. |
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All models are solidly higher. It will take a Thursday close below 9445 to turn the short term model lower and a close below 9075 on a Friday to turn the long term model lower. I suggest taking a look at buying October Cattle at around 9800 level. |
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We must be eating a lot of meat this summer because like the Cattle my Hog models are all solidly higher. It will take a Thursday close below 6490 to turn the short term model lower and a close below 6120 on a Friday to turn the long term model lower. I suggest taking a look at buying October Hogs around the 7240 level. |
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Shanghai October Aluminum |
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Let's get real exotic for a moment. The October Aluminum market has been in the dumper for months, but is trying to show a little life to the upside. The short term model has turned higher and needs a close on Thursday below 19170 RMB a metric ton (about $1.1625 a pound) to reverse the trend. The long term model remains bearish bit barely, and needs a close above 19600 RMB a metric ton (about $1.155 a pound) to turn the model higher. For an FYI, Shanghai October Aluminum closed Friday at 19660. |
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| | 5 Hot Picks by Michael Levin of Platinum Trading |
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 Michael Levin is a Consultant to Platinum Trading Solutions. He has been in the Financial markets since 1981, having been a broker and trader on the PHLX Equity Options floor in the 1980's and ran trading firms in New York in the 1990's to 2002. Mike briefly set a record in the options trading division of the US trading Championships years ago. |
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On CNBC today they had 3 people talking about the oil market and this woman said something that I have been talking about recently and that is about the amount of pure speculation in the market and it is at all time highs. She said this correlates to tops in the market here. Now I don't know exactly which readings she was referring to, but I started saying this a few weeks ago when Oil was around $74 or so, that with all the speculation around, that without any real move higher on heavy breakout type of volume, that we are headed south. I hold to that and look for a sharp pullback to the high $60's and then a resumption of the move down to the low $60's by the end of September.
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I am starting to really like Corn in here as everyone is getting washed out and looking elsewhere. December Corn looks like it may head lower, but I'd still like to start scaling into this here around $3.31 and any move lower for a move to fill the gap to $3.60 or so. |
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Starbucks raised prices and coffee just meanders in here, still liking the long side and seeing a move higher. Start rolling positions to the December contract and don't be surprised to see a pullback to $1.14 or so to shake out new longs. For the record, I got in nicely in May and "should have" sold into that nice rally but didn't, sometimes we are given a gift and we don't realize it... |
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As I said last week: "The reflex rally in Silver must be getting tired now as it comes to a very strong trend line resistance in the current area around $13.60-.70 for the Dec contract". Look at the chart and tell me that wasn't easy. When the metals collapsed as the market fell, that was a telling sign of weakness, stay away from the long side for now. As for Gold, I said to "step aside now (August at $684) and go to cash, waiting for a further catalyst either higher or lower"... Again, we all know what happened and I am in cash on both metals. |
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I do not like the chart in beans here. That means long or short. Looks scary to be long here, given the pullback and sideways move on the Nov contract. I "feel" that it may move higher short term, but for the record, I'd probably fade any real move... |
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