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Crude Oil

As I mentioned in a market specific article last week, I expect Crude to come down hard. It wouldn't surprise me to see it crack $70 fast with any rally after that to be brief as bulls will be frightened by the severity of the move and will want to liquidate and reverse. I know this is an unpopular sentiment in the market, but I stand by this call. Again, look to recent rips in the grain complex and that is what I believe is in store for Crude.

Corn

Corn did rally nicely, but only a dead cat bounce from the previous call for a big move down. If you look at the weekly charts for Dec Corn, you'll see that the recent move down stopped around 10 cents above the area of last years triple top breakout around the $3.18 area. As Corn takes a breather here, pick up some as a scalp back up to the $3.50-.55 area.

Coffee

My 1st call was the best as Coffee took a nice run, the 2nd call wasn't as good as it came back under $1.10 again. As they say, the 3rd time is a charm and I would buy any break above the recent rally high (Sep) and look to let go above $1.19. As for the Dec. contract, buy any rally above that recent advance too, with a likely test of the $1.24 area.

Metals

The reflex rally in Silver must be getting tired now as it comes to a very strong trend line resistance in the current area around $13.60-.70 for the Dec contract. As for Gold, I was a bit more bullish a few weeks ago as I mentioned to add to your position on a move above the $668 area for August and now it stands around the $684 area... I'd say to step aside now and go to cash, waiting for a further catalyst either higher or lower.

Soybeans

As I was so bearish on Corn I had missed the rallies in beans but also missed the big pullback we're in right now. Seems like the Bears lose a bit as these grains climb higher then they make it back in a few days as these contracts collapse and break through support like the proverbial knife through butter. Stand aside until a more tradable opportunity comes along, still neutral here.

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Wheat

Wheat continues to show great deal of resiliency while Corn and Soybeans are pressing lower. I am certainly not suggesting that one sell Wheat, but I am suggesting that it might be time for longs to tread carefully. Each successive high close is achieved with a decreasing RSI, which I believe suggests thin market attempting to push the Wheat to new high closes.

Dollar Index

Dollar Index continues to look like a sell on rallies. Even the Japanese Yen is starting to suggest a bottom against the U.S. Dollar. If the Currency market is your thing you might want to try selling the September Dollar around the 8100 level, and considering a stop-loss on Thursday's close above 8249.

Japanese Yen

As noted earlier, the Japanese Yen looks like it is attempting to reverse the downtrend. A higher than normal risk trade would be to buy the September Japanese Yen around the 8290/8285 area, and use a stop loss on Thursday's close below 8175.

Sugar

I continue to like October Sugar, and suggest one might want to give the long side a whack at 9.90 to 10.00 range. If you take this suggestion, I further recommend you use a 9.60 Stop Loss on Thursday's close.

Cotton

Cotton had a nice pullback filling the gap, making the gap fillers happy and hitting the initial Fibonacci correction level. We will watch the price action and very possibly put out a Cotton recommendation later in the week.