Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of July 2, 2007

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5 Hot Picks by Michael Levin of Platinum Trading
Michael Levin is a Consultant to Platinum Trading Solutions. He has been in the Financial markets since 1981, having been a broker and trader on the PHLX Equity Options floor in the 1980's and ran trading firms in New York in the 1990's to 2002. Mike briefly set a record in the options trading division of the US trading Championships years ago.

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With the upcoming holiday week upon us, I'm basically neutral on almost all of my positions, although as you'll see I am reloading on Coffee and scaling out of the incredible move up on Cotton to be totally flat on it now:

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Cotton

What an incredible move up, taking out both of my sell limits to close out of the trade with huge gains in a little more than 45 days... Timing is a great thing and again, as I said, I got lucky too... I'd wait for a pull back to wash out some of the new longs and give shorts a chance to catch their breath... Buy Oct Cotton on a move back to $59.

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Corn

Sorry to the Bulls as I said Corn would make a move below the $3.50 area and it did HARD. Now it's in the $3.37 area for September and I'm a buyer down here for a move back up to $3.75 or so.

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Soybeans

Well, as good as I've been these past few months, I did get Soybeans wrong last week as I expected a similar pullback here as in Corn, instead it ripped right up. No comment now, I'll lick my wounds and take a neutral stance until I get a better feel... Shame though as I've been a bull on Soybeans but tried to play it too tight and not look at the bigger picture.

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Metals

We did get that breakdown I was talking about in the metals although Silver didn't fall as low as I thought it might on panic selling, still it was a nice crack, hope you weren't long. A small reflex rally higher now, but I expect 1 or 2 more shake out attempts here before I go long. The same with Gold only a shallower pullback and a nice step down within the channel since May (Aug Gold). Today's action is encouraging and if the next pullback is higher than the recent low set last week I would enter 1/3 of a position with a move to $668 to add the next 1/3 of my position.

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Coffee

Coffee came back below where I thought it might, but still not back to our original entry around $1.07. The recent action on the September contract is intriguing as it seems to want to make a bottom but isn’t washing anyone out. Buy again here under $1.12 and let go of ½ the position around the $1.18 area on a rally.

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5 Hot Picks by Lee Gaus of EFG Group
Lee Gaus has thirty years of experience in the commodities industry. In 1992, Lee established EFG Group along with his two partners who are long-time friends. Since then, Lee has traveled the U.S. conducting seminars and trading meetings for retail traders and commodity offices.

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October Hogs

Since I am personally partial to spreads I am suggesting people look at Buying Oct Cattle/Selling Oct Hogs on a Spread around 2920 premium Oct Cattle. My long term model turned bullish this spread last Friday. It will take a close on Friday below 2421 to reverse the long term model.

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December Cotton

I continue to look for a dip back to around the 6240 to buy December Cotton. I will be willing to accept a good bit of risk with this trade using an initial stop below the 5666 on a Thursday close. My long term model turns bearish on a Friday close below 5476.

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November Beans

Given the latest USDA report and my models I will look to buy November Beans around $8.65, looking to use a stop loss on Thursday's close below $8.36. My long term model turns negative with a Friday close below $7.67.

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September Canadian Dollar

Buy September Canadian Dollar around the 9368 level using a stop loss on Thursday's close below 9256. My long term model turns lower on a close Friday below 9000.

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September Silver

Sell September Silver at around 1295 use a stop loss above 1360 on Thursday's close. It will take a Friday close above 1460 to reverse the long term model.

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.