Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of June 25, 2007

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HOT
5 Hot Picks by Lee Gaus of EFG Group
Lee Gaus has thirty years of experience in the commodities industry. In 1992, Lee established EFG Group along with his two partners who are long-time friends. Since then, Lee has traveled the U.S. conducting seminars and trading meetings for retail traders and commodity offices.

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September British Pound

I like buying the Pound on setbacks. Conservative traders may want to take a shot at the side at 1.9840 area, more aggressive traders may want to give it a shot at the 1.9920 level. My initial stop suggestion would be on a Thursday close below 1.9674.

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October Hogs

This is a higher risk trade at this time. My models are suggesting a possible change in the long term indicators. I will look at selling the Oct. Hogs at around 6727 for conservative traders and around 6665 for more aggressive traders. I will look to use a stop loss on a Thursday close above 6745.

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October Sugar

Again a higher risk trade, but I do like this one. Buy October Sugar around 920 for aggressive traders and around 9.00 for more conservative traders. Consider a stop loss on a Thursday close below 881.

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December Cotton

After months of heading south Cotton appears to be attempting a long term change of direction. All my models are pointing higher with Friday close below 5145 needed to reverse the long term trend. Look to buy December Cotton around 5900, looking to use a stop loss on Thursday close below 5515.

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December Corn/December Wheat

This is a real Brass Monkey trade since is indeed counter trend trading. If one chooses to trade this they better have deep pockets and a good set of nerves. Look to Buy December Corn/Sell December Wheat around the $2.30 level premium the December Wheat.

A word to the Wise

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not assured. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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5 Hot Picks by Michael Levin of Platinum Trading
Michael Levin is a Consultant to Platinum Trading Solutions. He has been in the Financial markets since 1981, having been a broker and trader on the PHLX Equity Options floor in the 1980's and ran trading firms in New York in the 1990's to 2002. Mike briefly set a record in the options trading division of the US trading Championships years ago.

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We have had some great moves in the commodities I have been recommending and for those I have been tepid on they have basically just languished...

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Cotton

Cotton has been awesome and tooting my own horn a bit: I told you so! The Bullish article I wrote on the 21st of May on this site (See archives for the "Tuesday" article for market specific commentary) couldn't have been better timing for the bulls (Luck helps too) with Cotton ripping higher by roughly 15% since then. I would take half of my position off here and sell into a rally around $62.00 for the October month... and around $58 for July contract.

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Corn

Corn did breakout above April and Mays sideways move and had a sharp spike up to the $4.25+ area a week or so ago and then got hammered back down to test the lows disappointing many a trader and surprising me with both the pop higher and then the total annihilation of the Bulls on the precipitous decline last week. I expect a reflex rally up to about $3.95 and then, believe it or not, I expect a move to $3.50 or so, wiping out all hope for those expecting a major move up in Corn... Only then will I start looking at the Bull camp again.

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Soybeans

I expect the same for Soybeans as crop conditions are ideal now and everyone seems so bullish with that breakout to $8.60... but the pullback may have to come down to the trend line around $7.65 and really hold there for me to get interested. A couple of shake-out moves might be needed around that price too.

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Metals

Metals have been lackluster and almost everyone is waiting for Silver to get off its "bottom" (I could have used a 3 letter word, but didn't) but I think there is more downside to test $12 on the December contract and wouldn't be surprised to see $11.75 on a selloff. Gold, again, seems locked in a trading range between $660 to $715 with a break down to $640 or so in the cards...

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Coffee

My call a few weeks ago to buy the break north of coffee at $1.07 was good, now at $1.14 it still looks good; I expect a pop to the high $1.20's. Stay long and ride this for at least the next month or so, everyone will be surprised how this one rips higher.

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.