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| 5 Hot Picks by Phil Flynn of Alaron |
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| Phil is Vice President, Energy and General Market Analyst with Alaron Futures and Options and is one of the world's leading energy market analysts. His market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide. |
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From one crisis to another. When it comes to the oil markets there is always something to worry about. Oil prices surged last week on the Iranian hostage crisis. Oil prices at one point went as high as $68 a barrel when there was a false report of a military incident. Iran finally relented and prices fell back to the low $63 a barrel area. But then just when you thought it was safe to go short the oil, Iran announced its plan to enrich uranium on an industrial scale. The truth is that when it comes to oil Iran is not the only reason to be long! Demand for oil is strong as OPEC continues to cut production. Buy June Crude 6550 with a stop at 6150 with a target of $78 a barrel long
term. |
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You are like a hurricane but how can you ride a hurricane? The natural gas is still in a vulnerable position. Supplies of gas are below year ago levels and the demand for gas going forward looks like it will be stellar. Electricity demand has been running near record highs and that may take a toll on the natural gas refill season. As we all remember the damage that Hurricane Katrina caused set the stage for gas to eventually trade at record highs. Now if you can believe the weather forecasters we could be in for a very active and dangerous hurricane season. If the weather forecasters are correct the price of gas could hit a new record high. One way to play the Hurricane: Look to
buy a September 15 call at 0.052 |
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Forgotten cotton. With all the excitement surrounding the soft markets and grain markets the poor lonely cotton seems to be somewhat forgotten. Cotton collapsed as the Asian stock market blues fostered fears that demand for cotton could be poor. As the Asian market stabilized the cotton fought back. China demand for cotton has been rising as export sales came in at a better than expected 360,460 bales. And with with focus on corn and cocoa the forgotten cotton could be the charm. Farmers have reduced cotton plantings to jump on the corn ethanol powered band wagon at the same time demand may prove to be better than expected. Buy July cotton at 5420 with a stop at 5320. Target 5600
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The Silver market has yet to fully recover from the Asian flu. Silver traders panicked as the Asian stock market tumbled and Allan Greenspan bumbled. The Industrial outlook for demand has improved significantly as the Asian stock drop now looks like a healthy correction. A strong Asian economy means strong demand for silver. Concerns that the dollar rally will soon slow and strength in other metals seems to suggest that silver may indeed be a bargain. Buy May silver at 1360 with a stop of 1300. Target 1550 longer term perhaps as high as 1700 |
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Got Juice? Will the OJ market get all juiced up? The OJ market has had a run of bad luck and if it isn’t hurricanes reducing the crops it’s the effects of crop disease. This years production could fall as low as 132 million boxes. That’s a drop from last year’s 220 million boxes and the smallest expected production in the last twenty years. Now add in the fact that weather forecasters are predicting a record hurricane season and the potential for a big move may be high. Perhaps one way to play the move is to buy a November 315 call for about 300 points. That could really go up if we have a damaging hurricane season. |
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| 5 Hot Picks by Sterling Smith of FuturesOne |
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| Sterling Smith is developer and publisher of the FuturesOne Power Index, and a 15-year market veteran. Registered as a CTA he is a noted Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa analyst. Sterling works with clients of all sizes to help improve their trading. |
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As long we can stay above the 63.00 area, the components can lead this market higher. The strength of this market remains astounding, and political worries can provide stimulation here. |
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This chart isn’t exactly a model of beauty, but this market is growing oversold, and the simple fact that we haven’t plunged can be viewed as supportive. The COT number also shows most of the currency markets to be reaching some extreme areas. While haven’t seen enough to look for reversal just yet, we could be getting there. |
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We probably have some downside left here but it should be limited and we should be looking for bottoming around the 112 area basis July. |
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We seem to marching to its own drummer here, and yes gold can rally if the dollar falls and I would not be surprised by a challenge of the 700 level this week. |
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The COT numbers keep giving me a bullish picture and the price action speaks for itself, so I am looking for continued upside here. |
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