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Special Message from Our Author
MARKET REPORT: 2008 Wheat Crop Price Outlook
U.S. winter wheat ratings are slipping as harvest begins -- but you can keep on top of the wheat markets with this current report from RJO Futures. It provides a breakdown of the winter wheat condition ratings, wheat good/excellent ratings by state, winter wheat production, winter wheat output by type, and more.
Get Your Complimentary Report Now! | |
Today's Featured Article
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Clear skies continued during the first half of last week in the western and northern areas of the Midwest, boosting expectations of another strong push in U.S. planting progress. Cold temperatures and rain showers every few days on the saturated soils of the eastern corn belt (ECB), however, kept the U.S. overall planting progress below many expectations again this week. Substantial moisture also fell in many of the driest areas of the Northern Plains last week, rebounding U.S. winter wheat crop ratings and boosting spring wheat's first crop conditions update. | |
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This week's U.S. corn planting progress increased 15% to 88% vs. trade ideas of a 90% plus pace late last week. Northern areas did make some good corn progress with SD (+30%), MN (+28%) and WI (+24%) recovering to near the five-year average. Meanwhile, IA (93%) and NE (96%) neared completion. Cool, wet soils kept many producers' planters in their sheds in the ECB again this week -- with Illinois still 10% behind its five-year average pace for May 25, while IN and OH respectively were 12% and 29% behind. Overall, 10.3 million U.S. acres still remain to be planted, with nearly 50% of this total in the productive states of IL, IN, OH and MO. This year's poor weather also is keeping corn's
emergence rate 24% behind its normal U.S. pace of 76% for late May -- with some ECB producers reportedly having to replant corn because of poor stands.
If you cannot view the U.S. Corn Planting Progress chart, go here.
If you cannot view the Unplanted 2008 U.S. Corn Acres chart, go here.
This year's soybean seedings also remain behind their 2003-2007 average pace of 67%, with just 52% estimated to be planted by May 25. This is a 25% increase for last week -- with impressive increases in IA (+38%), MN (+48%), NE (+36%) and ND (+31%) -- but the eastern Midwest (IL +24%, IN +15% and OH +10%), along with MO (+12%), didn't make much progress.
If you cannot view the U.S. Soybean Planting Progress chart, go here.
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Winter wheat crop conditions continue to vacillate again this week. Northern hard red winter areas got some much need moisture, with MT (+8%), KS (+6%) and NE (+2%) improving. Excessive rains in Southern IL weakened this soft red winter wheat state's good/excellent ratings by 7%.
Dryness in WA also slipped white winter wheat's good/excellent ratings slightly this week. This year's first wheat condition report was lower than last year's strong 79% in the top two categories, because of dryness in the western Dakotas this year -- resulting in just 52% total of good/excellent ratings.
If you cannot view the U.S. Winter Wheat Condition Ratings chart, go here.
If you cannot view the U.S. Spring Wheat Conditions chart,
go here.
Late week rains will likely have a split personality, with the western areas likely welcoming the moisture while the eastern fields probably don't need a drop of rainfall this week or next. With Argentina's farmers going on strike until June 2, weather will have reduced impact on soybeans, but July corn remains vulnerable for pressure to $5.60-$5.70 once the corn is all planted. Chicago wheat has hit our $7.50 downside target, but this pit still remains vulnerable for another 50-cent break under harvest pressure over the next month.
The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. | |
About the Author
Jerry Gidel is the president of Midland Research, Inc. and a research trading analyst for RJO Futures. In April 2003, he joined North America Risk Management Services, Inc. (NARMS) as an associate, specializing in the cash and futures grain markets.
With more than 30 years of experience in commodity analysis and brokerage, Jerry focuses on providing risk management services to livestock producers, grain producers, and commercial operations. He formed Midland Research in 1981 as a consulting firm working from the agricultural trading floor at the Chicago Board of Trade.
He has vast experience as a vice president and senior grain analyst at Dean Witter Reynolds, and as a grain market research analyst with several other leading commodity brokerage firms, including Paine Webber, G.H. Miller, LIT. | |
Special Message from Our Author
MARKET REPORT: 2008 Wheat Crop Price Outlook
U.S. winter wheat ratings are slipping as harvest begins -- but you can keep on top of the wheat markets with this current report from RJO Futures. It provides a breakdown of the winter wheat condition ratings, wheat good/excellent ratings by state, winter wheat production, winter wheat output by type, and more.
Get Your Complimentary Report Now! | |
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