Chicago Wheat: It's still my bias that the wheat futures market is in a "blow-off top" phase, during which time price action becomes more volatile as prices scream higher. Indeed, a look at the longer-term monthly continuation chart for nearby wheat futures shows that major bull market runs do produce V-Top reversal patterns, whereby the ascent in prices is steep, followed by a descent in prices that is just as steep--forming a V- Top.
When markets go "parabolic" like has the wheat futures market at present, I like to examine "time" as opposed to "price." By that I mean it's difficult, if not impossible, to presently project at what price wheat futures will finally hit a peak. However, by examining the history of wheat futures price action the past 35 years, the "time" element of the market structure does strongly suggest a major market top is now not that far away.
If you cannot view the monthly wheat chart, go here.
Corn: The weekly continuation chart for nearby corn futures, like the daily chart for December corn, does suggest prices are stuck in a trading range between the support and resistance levels seen on the chart. The direction in which nearby corn futures push above resistance or below support, as shown on the weekly chart, is very likely the next major longer-term price trend in the corn futures market.
If you cannot view the weekly corn chart, go here.
Soybeans: Prices this week hit a fresh three-year high, basis nearby futures. Bulls have solid upside longer-term and shorter-term technical momentum on their side. The next longer-term upside technical objective is to push prices above longer-term resistance at the $10.00 area, basis nearby futures.
Bean bulls should be at least a bit worried, however, as the soybean market is heading into a seasonally weak timeframe, whereby U.S. soybean harvest is just beginning and large supplies are about to enter the marketplace. Also, if wheat and corn futures prices cannot show continued strength, then any further upside in soybean futures will not likely occur, either.
If you cannot view the monthly soybean chart, go here.
Gold: The weaker U.S. dollar has helped the gold market bulls shift into a higher gear, as prices have recently pushed above major psychological resistance at $700.00 an ounce. Once gold does push above $700.00, then daily prices moves do become bigger--both on the upside and on the downside.
See on the monthly continuation chart for nearby gold futures that recent price action has produced a bullish upside "breakout" from a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern on the monthly chart. Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns. Given that the trend on the monthly chart had been up, then technical odds did suggest an upside breakout from the triangle. Measuring implications from this particular chart pattern on the monthly gold chart point to an upside target of above $800.00 an ounce in the coming months.
If you cannot view the monthly gold chart, go here.
Cotton: The bulls have shown resilience and gained fresh technical momentum this week. The market digested a slightly bearish USDA U.S. production figure last week, and rallied in its wake, producing a fresh four-week high.
This market is one of those that is seeing a "coattail effect" from big gains in grains, gold and crude oil. Fresh speculative and fund buying has entered into the cotton futures market recently. But bulls should be warned if the aforementioned "outside markets" turn more bearish, then cotton will see spillover selling pressure, too.
The weekly continuation chart for nearby cotton futures does show a choppy uptrend line is in place. A drop below solid trend-line support at the 58.00-cent area, basis nearby futures, would be a bearish longer-term technical clue to suggest that a market top is in place.
However, a move in nearby cotton futures prices above solid longer-term resistance at the 63.00-cent area would be a bullish longer-term clue to suggest that more gains are likely in the coming weeks.
If you cannot view the weekly cotton chart, go here.
