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June 1, 2007

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Today's Featured Article
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Option Spreads and Coffee
By Sterling Smith

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About the Author

It is summer time and we have some big markets and the potential for some other markets to get big. A common way for commodity traders to participate in this buy using option spreads. This allows for a position to be taken at lower cost than if a just an option is purchased. This also allows for a clearly defined risk.

While this is a viable strategy it is important to understand how these types of trades work when the market moves in the direction anticipated. In today’s article I will cover some of these elements and to better use this technique.

What is an option spread? I will use the coffee market as an example. As I write this September coffee is trading at about 116.00. Right now I am becoming bullish towards the coffee for both things I see forming on the chart and some improving fundamentals. Coffee can be wild market so perhaps trading a futures contract may be a little more risky than I to take at this point, so what I can do is this:

Buy 1 September 125 call at 3.35
Sell 1 September 135 call at 2.10

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Based on Thursday’s settlements this trade should cost around 1.25 points or a little less than $500. The premium paid plus fees/commissions represents the maximum the risk in the trade. Maximum value at expiration is $3750 or a profit potential of $3250, so this trade would afford 6.5:1 risk to reward ratio, which for a defined risk trade is a pretty good deal compared to some other plays. The trade from today has 70 calendar days until expiration.

The idea behind this trade is pretty simple, as coffee moves up the value of spread expands, and if the market declines or stands still we are only exposed to the premium paid.

The characteristics of this type of position however do change if the market does move in our favor, and it is important to understand these changes.

At the beginning of the trade, as coffee moves the behavior of the trade is comparatively simple and it normally increases in value. However when the options come into the money the trade will begin to move more slowly and gains will begin to experience diminishing returns.

Topped out: the trade does exactly what it was supposed to do. Let’s say for example with 35 days to go in the trade we find coffee at trading at 136, which represents the top end of our spread. While commons sense says the trade should be worth the maximum of $3750, this would be its value at expiration, the market reality is rather different.

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This stems from the market reality that in the money options do not always move as fast as just/slightly out of the money options. When an option goes in the money, while intrinsic value does increase, time value often decays away. So basically the short call (135 strike prices) becomes a better relative performer than does the long option (125 strike price). Generally speaking it is better to swap out deep in the money options for at or just out of the money options, as these will perform at least just as well if the market continues to move and should have lower risk if the market should turn and start going the other way.

Trades of this sort are best used, in my opinion when we think a move is just about to begin or is in its infancy. They provide a lower risk alternative and also can allow for a longer time frame for market participation, which helps to cut down market timing risk some.

The coffee market right now looks like a market where this sort of strategy in my opinion does make some sense for this type of trade. Coffee is market that in the past has been capable of being a “big” market, in the 1990’s the market has moved more than 50 full points in a single month, and at $375 a point, that is a very big move indeed.

Coffee was in a steady downtrend since December of 2006, and put in what looks like substantial lows in May, and has been making a reasonable recovery since May 1st.

Harvest concerns in Brazil and Kenya have been noted in the news recently. South America is also entering its winter season and frost can spell trouble for crops going forward.

Coffee is a favorite of commodity trading funds and should they start feeling friendly towards the java juice this could be yet another factor.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF FUTURESONE AND STERLING J SMITH. THE INFORMATION REFLECTED HEREIN IS DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE; HOWEVER, THIS INFORMATION IS NOT ASSURED AS TO ITS ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS. OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS MATERIAL AND ANY VIEW EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED IN ANY WAY AS AN INDUCEMENT TO BUY OR SELL COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS. FUTURESONE AND ITS OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES AND AFFILIATES MAY TAKE POSITIONS FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS IN CONTRACTS REFERRED TO HEREIN. TRADING FUTURES INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS. DO NOT DUPLICATE.

This publication is strictly the opinion of its writer and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way assured. No assurance of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

Futures and options trading involve risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this market letter be construed as an express or an implied promise, assurance or implication by or from FuturesOne or Sterling J Smith that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance.

About the Author
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This week's author is Sterling Smith. FuturesOne Vice President and CTA, Sterling Smith, creator and publisher of the FuturesOne Power Index, is a veteran broker and widely quoted market analyst. Beginning in the futures industry as a risk manager for a large FCM, he moved to a major clearing firm and learned from some legendary traders. He incorporates the benefits of these insights to help every client construct better trading plans and to enhance their understanding of the marketplace.

Special Message from Our Author
----------

Sign up for you complimentary CD-ROM "Trading Commodity Futures". Brought to you by FuturesOne

Sign up and get your complimentary educational seminar. This interactive CD-ROM introduces you to the fundamentals of futures trading. It lays out easy to follow trading examples along with additional resources to help today's commodity trader. This comprehensive educational CD-ROM was developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and brought to you by FuturesOne. To get your complimentary personal CD and learn more about this great offer go here.

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.