It isn't in the losses or the missed signals but in the profits cut short where we suffer failure.

- Joe Kellogg

July 15, 2008

REVERSAL DATES FOR THE WEEK of July 14, 2008 - July 18, 2008

MONDAY -- Hogs, Corn, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc
TUESDAY -- T-Bonds, Euro Currency, Japanese yen
WEDNESDAY -- Wheat, Soybean, Gold, Dow Jones
THURSDAY --
FRIDAY -- British pound, Sugar

CURRENT RECOMMENDED POSITION

MARKETS TO WATCH:

1-AUGUST GOLD - Long from $937.00 - TC - $973.60 -- Two consecutive higher closes is further confirmation of the next leg in the longer-term bullish reaction cycle. The swing pattern suggests we can adjust the target price to $980.00. The higher close has also confirmed the E-F reaction swing and identifies the next reversal date due on July 17-18. -- Hold the long position, but move the protective stop to $952.00.

2-SEPTEMBER JAPANESE YEN - Long at 9415 & 9448 - TC - 9457 -- The Yen traded higher and moved out of the buy window and triggered the second buy signal at 9448. The two higher closes confirmed the E to F reaction swing and center of the longer-term bullish cycle. The Yen should continue to move higher into the next reversal date July 18 with an initial target of 9600. -- Hold the current long position with the protective stop at 9320.

3-OCTOBER SUGAR - Long from 1330 - TC - 1359 -- Even with Monday's lower close, the cycle remains bullish into the July 18 reversal date. A lower close on Monday could set up a bullish profile week with the Sugar trading higher into Friday. -- Keep the protective stop to 1320. The long-term target remains 1475 or higher.

4-SEPTEMBER DOW JONES (MINI) - The Dow traded to a new low and found support at the long-term reaction line (10962) on Friday. The market rebounded of the reaction line and closed at 11096. Monday followed with an inside day that was also supported by the sloping reaction line. The Dow may continue to test the Reaction line support as it moves toward the July 16th reversal date. This could mark a low in the Dow.

5-NOVEMBER SOYBEANS - In the previous updates, I said the market could rebound into the sell window ($15.74 - $16.50) and set up a potential bearish TR pattern. This is a critical level where major reversals can occur. The Soybeans traded sharply lower Sunday evening and during Monday's session, taking out Friday's low of $15.61. This was enough to trigger the sell signal and confirm the TR pattern. The forward/reverse count can now be used to project the future reversal date for August 1, suggesting Soybeans could be under pressure over the next two weeks.

6-SEPTEMBER SILVER - Long from $18.51 - TC - $19.25 -- The Silver has crossed the centerline resistance and is poised to reach the new target at $19.50. The strong rally has pushed the market passed the centerline. This suggests that Price is exceeding time and the Silver will most likely reach the target before the July 18th reversal date. -- Hold the long position, move the protective stop at $18.55 with the target at $19.50.

7-SEPTEMBER BRITISH POUND - The BP is poised to confirm the E to F reaction swing and portend a rally to the upper reaction line target of 201.00. This could be a fast move because the next reversal date is due July 18. -- Buy the BP at 19872 on a stop, with the protective stop below the F pivot low.

8-AUGUST SOYBEAN OIL - The Bean oil is forming a bearish swing pattern on the warning line. A trade below 6261 will confirm the reaction swing and trigger the sell stop.

*Due to the volatility of the markets, all trade recommendations are subject to change without notice.

*Due to the volatility of the markets, all trade recommendations are subject to change without notice.

How to use the Reversal Dates

Every good trading signal needs three key elements to be considered a successful signal. Time, Price and Pattern. When these three come together, great things can happen. If you can improve your timing or price entry, it can enhance any trading method. That is what the Reversal Dates can do for you. They will identify when the market should react, and at what price level the market needs to be for this to happen. They will even tell you what the market has to do to confirm the trade. The first thing I do is, identify Time.

TIME
The Reversal Date Indicator consists of three parts. The first is Time. This is identified by the projected Reversal date and will indicate which markets are ready to react and when the reaction should occur. The most common misconception about the Reversal dates is the idea that the market must reverse on every signal date, which is not true. Instead, The Reversal Date itself helps to identify the market's reaction. A high percentage of the time, the market will reverse the current trend, but not always. A smaller percentage of the time, the market will form a "continuation pattern," indicating the market will likely continue in the same direction as the prevailing trend. Often this will occur during a consolidation or after a very small correction.

PRICE
Once the Reversal date has been identified, the next thing to do is monitor the price. If the market is making a new high/low, or if it is trading inside a buy/sell window, then the second component of a trade signal is in place. You now have Time and Price working together. For most traders, that will be enough, but the Reversal Date Indicator takes it one step further.

PATTERN
After extensive research into price patterns, I have identified specific price patterns, which occur during reversal timing. These patterns can be used to confirm the market reversals or market continuations. When, and only when, these three components are all working together, will there be a trade signal generated.

Traders Market Views is a product of Traders Network and all statements herein reflect Traders Network's market research. Traders Network and/or its principals, brokers and employees may or may not have established positions in part or all of the markets herein mentioned. It is possible that some of those positions, if any, are in direct conflict with the market commentary herewith.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES.

Joseph Kellogg started in the commodity business as a commercial grain merchandiser and basis trader. He was one of the architects of the Farm Marketing Program (FMP). This marketing plan was designed for agricultural businesses to use with grain options in strategies that could not only hedge their cash crops, but also aid in their marketing. He hosted "Futures Talk," a commodity talk radio program that aired bi-weekly on a Los Angeles radio station. Joseph has also developed many option writing strategies, which can be used with the reversal point method.