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- Joe Kellogg

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April 10, 2007

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Today's Featured Article
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Market Scoop
By Joe Kellogg

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June Notes -

Notes

US treasuries fell Friday’s after the better-than-expected employment report was released.  The number, which will likely be revised downward, showed an increase of 215,000 jobs and suggested a further tightening job market, and a likely interest rate jump at the next FOMC meeting on May 9th.  But I don’t see the Fed increasing rates—there’s too many conflicting indicators.  Instead, The Fed will hold rates unchanged.  In the last issue I said, “It’s likely the notes will drift a bit lower - possibly to the 1 X 1 Gann support line at 107-27, before they’re ready to turn higher.”  Friday’s sell-off knocked the market down to 107-11, a bit through the Gann line, in thin holiday trade.  

May Silver-

Silver

Over the last several weeks, I’ve been saying, “Look for heavy selling pressure to grip the market between 13.65 and 14.20.”  My sell projection has been based on the belief that silver would climb back about 60% of its early March drop, before the sellers re-entered.    Monday’s high of 13.92 fulfilled that belief.  We’re now in the sell zone!  A steady to higher trade Tuesday should give us a sell recommendation on Wednesday. 

April Gold- Our downside target is $620.00.

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June Dollar Index-

Dollar Index

Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment report rallied the dollar today—pushing it to 82.93, as of this writing.  As you know, our upside target has been pegged at 82.93.   Although traders will be keeping a watchful eye over the G-7 meeting on April 11th and 12th, I’m expecting a steady to higher track for the greenback this week.    

June Yen- I thought we’d see the Yen rally, but it has not.  Instead, the downtrend has continued.  Last Tuesday I wrote, “Technically, we need to see this market turn higher by Wednesday.”  It didn’t and so it’s time to cancel the upside of 87.20.  I still see the Yen as undervalued and that subject will be discussed when the G-7 meets on April 11th and 12th.  Perhaps after that, we’ll have another buying recommendation.      
 
June Canadian Dollar-

Canadian Dollar

Our upside target is 88.05. 

May Corn- In Iowa, weather delays have kept farmers out of the fields, unable to get the prep work completed before corn planting can begin.   In northern Iowa, soil temps are in the thirties, too cold for planting.   Seasonally, most Iowa farmers are planting corn by the 20th of April, so we’re not behind yet, but if the weather doesn’t begin warming and improving by the later part of this week, corn will be pushed higher. 

May Wheat -

Wheat

Ding! Ding! Ding!  Wheat traded through our upside target of 4.52 today, as the market jumped higher on concerns of the Easter weekend’s cold snap.  We’re not likely to see much damage on the wheat crops in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska, but Oklahoma and Texas have suffered some damage; how much is uncertain. 

May Coffee-

Coffee

There’s been four blips on my coffee chart since the start of 2007, and all four have been false starts.  In each case, the market managed to maintain its rally only a few days before reversing into a new yearly low, but my trend indicator never turned up during these rallies and it hasn’t turned up now, but we’re close.  A steady to lower trade Tuesday should set up a buying opportunity Wednesday, on a break above 113.50.

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REVERSAL DATES FOR THE WEEK of April 9, 2007

MONDAY -- Heating Oil, British Pound
TUESDAY -- Cattle, Hogs, Wheat, Japanese yen, Cocoa
WEDNESDAY -- Dow Jones, Canada Dollar, Swiss Franc
THURSDAY -- Soybean, Soy Meal
FRIDAY --

CURRENT RECOMMENDED POSITION

MARKETS TO WATCH:

MAY COFFEE - The Coffee rallied, after posting a new low on April 2, when the market failed to find new sellers. This failed swing pattern is part of a larger TR (Trend Reversal) pattern that is beginning to develop. The rally met resistance at the 20-day SMA and pulled back. This has formed a bullish Reaction swing and completed the last segment of the TR pattern. A break above 111.60 will confirm the Reaction swing and trigger a buy signal. If the pattern unfolds as described, it would portend an upward trend into the next Reversal date slated for April 25. - Buy the Coffee at 111.75 stop, with a protective stop at 109.75.

MAY COCOA - The Cocoa confirmed a bearish TR (Trend Reversal) pattern on Monday. The sell signal was triggered after the market closed inside the sell window on Thursday, followed by the lower opening on Monday. The lower opening traded through the 1895 trigger price to confirm the signal. The reverse/forward count suggests the trend shift could pressure the Cocoa over the next two weeks.

MAY SOYBEANS - The pivot high on April 2 (a projected Reversal date) completed the final pivot for a bearish five-wave continuation pattern and a potential drop into the Reaction line support at 725. This could happen quickly, as the market approaches the next Reversal date due on April 12. - Sell the Soybeans at $7.51 stop, with a protective stop at $7.81. For updated stops, you can refer to the Reversal Tracker program on our website.

JUNE SWISS FRANC - Thursday's rally traded above the value line, but it was unable to hold, as Friday's employment report kicked in renewed selling pressure. The market has been under pressure from bearish TR pattern that completed on March 27. The reverse/forward count projects future Reversal dates for April 16 and April 20. I look for continued selling, as the market approaches the projected Reversal dates. You can follow the progress of this trade signal on the Reversal Tracker program.

JUNE DOW JONES (E-mini) - The Reversal Tracker has already triggered a buy signal on March 28, based on a bullish TR pattern. However, if you're still looking for a place to enter the long side, the program has identified another bullish setup. The new Reaction swing pattern projects a run at the contract high (12855) on or before the next reversal date of April 17. - Buy the Dow Jones at 12670 stop, with a protective stop at 12551.

MAY WHEAT - The rally that began after the April 3 Reversal date, peaked at $4.75 early during Monday's trading session. Heavy selling quickly erased the gains and pulled the market into the negative. The market is swinging wildly, as it digests the recent Crop Plantings report, but it has also been forming a bullish TR pattern. Tuesday is a projected reversal date and Monday's pullback is playing right into the pattern. A trade below $4.37 will put the market inside the buy window and complete the TR pattern.

*Due to the volatility of the markets, all trade recommendations are subject to change without notice.

How to use the Reversal Dates

Every good trading signal needs three key elements to be considered a successful signal. Time, Price and Pattern. When these three come together, great things can happen. If you can improve your timing or price entry, it can enhance any trading method. That is what the Reversal Dates can do for you. They will identify when the market should react, and at what price level the market needs to be for this to happen. They will even tell you what the market has to do to confirm the trade. The first thing I do is, identify Time.

TIME
The Reversal Date Indicator consists of three parts. The first is Time. This is identified by the projected Reversal date and will indicate which markets are ready to react and when the reaction should occur. The most common misconception about the Reversal dates is the idea that the market must reverse on every signal date, which is not true. Instead, The Reversal Date itself helps to identify the market's reaction. A high percentage of the time, the market will reverse the current trend, but not always. A smaller percentage of the time, the market will form a "continuation pattern," indicating the market will likely continue in the same direction as the prevailing trend. Often this will occur during a consolidation or after a very small correction.

PRICE
Once the Reversal date has been identified, the next thing to do is monitor the price. If the market is making a new high/low, or if it is trading inside a buy/sell window, then the second component of a trade signal is in place. You now have Time and Price working together. For most traders, that will be enough, but the Reversal Date Indicator takes it one step further.

PATTERN
After extensive research into price patterns, I have identified specific price patterns, which occur during reversal timing. These patterns can be used to confirm the market reversals or market continuations. When, and only when, these three components are all working together, will there be a trade signal generated.

Traders Market Views is a product of Traders Network and all statements herein reflect Traders Network's market research. Traders Network and/or its principals, brokers and employees may or may not have established positions in part or all of the markets herein mentioned. It is possible that some of those positions, if any, are in direct conflict with the market commentary herewith.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES.

About the Author
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Joseph Kellogg started in the commodity business as a commercial grain merchandiser and basis trader. He was one of the architects of the Farm Marketing Program (FMP). This marketing plan was designed for agricultural businesses to use with grain options in strategies that could not only hedge their cash crops, but also aid in their marketing. He hosted "Futures Talk," a commodity talk radio program that aired bi-weekly on a Los Angeles radio station. Joseph has also developed many option writing strategies, which can be used with the reversal point method.

Special Message from Our Author
----------

Get your complimentary copy of the "Reversal Day Trading Indicator"

Trader's Network brings you the "Reversal Day Trading Indicator", it works with any trading system to signal market turns and pinpoints market entry and exit signals. You will learn how to rely on internal market forces not guesswork, and overcome the 7 biggest mistakes traders make. Learn more about reversal day phenomenon and get your complimentary booklet today!

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