|
Trader's Tip
Quotes & Charts
Quote Search:
Market Specific Links:
Indices/Minis
Grains
Currencies/Forex
Financials
Food/Fiber/Softs
Metals
Energy
Meats
|
Special Message from Our Author
Today's Featured Article
Due to space limitations, this article by Fortucast's Barry Rosen provides the author's outlook for only a few markets. Sign up here to get in-depth daily coverage of 13 financial markets with Fortucast's Daily Financial Report.
DEC. S&P e-MINI
HOURLY CHART TREND: Topping and lower.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher to 1054.50 and then lower.
WEEKLY CHART: Higher into Oct. 9-12 or 16 toward 1100-1130.
OVERALL: (9/15) We are favoring new highs into Oct. 16-20 toward 1100-30 on the S & P 500 futures and at this point we think that pullbacks will be minor from Sept. 20-28 -- maybe 47.50 points. We can still count on some upsetting financial stat over the next few weeks but the government will likely cover them up. For example, while unemployment was at 9.7% if you include people that gave up on looking and part-timers seeking employment, economists indicate that 16.7% is the real number.
The current 29.5-year cycle creates messes like this. So far it has not created a crisis in markets except for increasing volatility but behind the scenes it is still messy. The government will keep Goldman Sachs and their fingers on the dike as long as they can. The PPI, which came in today at 20% annualized, is starting to wake up the inflation bears.
SEPTEMBER: (9/9) Fear cycles dominate Aug. 31-Oct. 4. Statistically in months where July and August were higher, September only fell .4% on average since 1920. Still, once crude starts falling again, stocks may fall a bit. The Plunge Protection Team at Goldman Sachs keeps their fingers in the dam, sell-offs may be modest. An amazing October rally could get people crazy but it will fade and we will fall into November and do other lows into Jan. 15, 2010 and March 21, 2010. The October rally could go to 1100 if the market does not really fall that much during the September swoon.
LONGER-TERM: We cannot see the stock market making new highs the rest of the year after Oct. 12-20 but there still appears to be one last strong rally in September on the coattails of crude. This is the Year still of False Optimism still and that cycle still dominates so people are unrealistically going to play that the economy is alright but a number of other cycles in the fall will continue to show that the Emperor has no clothes. Probably that will be in the latter half of 2010 into 2011. For now all the trillions of dollars that the U.S. and China have thrown into their recoveries has to have an effect and the positive side of that should end by June 2010. We still need to do more
research to see the direct effects on the United States but Obama is not likely to be a happy camper by the end of August and early September. Crude may benefit at times from these cycles but will stocks continue to follow crude under some rather messy conditions coming up?
LONGER TERM COVERAGE: For a complete long-term analysis and long-term overview of charts and patterns and key dates into 2013, see our new product,
Fortucast Financial Visions of the Future with a new update 9/8/2009.
|
|
CHICAGO DEC. MINI-GOLD (electronic)
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher toward 1033.60 and eventually 1050 into mid-October.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher toward 1050 and the October high could be higher on flight to quality if financials fall.
BIG PICTURE (8/28) Gold has been a tough market to play and everyone is expecting record numbers but they may have to wait a while. The best upward play for gold will be from March 2010-June 2010 shorter-term and then a position trade should be done around Dec. 2010 with a hold into 2013. We might get 1120 or higher to 1200. Moreover, a major deflation thrust hits June-Dec. 2010 and gold could even go down to 750 then if crude collapses. Gold bugs really have to wait until 2011 for "The" major buy and may not find instant gratification until 2012-13 when we should hit 2400 to 3000. And that may only be if the U.S. does not take gold off the market like they have done in similar crises.
Our biggest concern is a potential H1N1 Flu pandemic. We are not clear whether it will lead to major buying out of fear or major selling on earlier than expected deflation. Still, there is enough of a rally from the fall low or the March 2010 secondary low to make big money into June 2010.
Those waiting for the hyper gold cycles will have to wait probably into Feb. 2011-Dec. 2013. We think the dollar will become worthless or near worthless into 2012-3 and that gold will become king again. Prices project 2400-3000.
NEAR TERM: (9/8) This fall, the cycle that led to gold spurting up with crude from the middle of June to the middle of July is repeating and should influence gold again into Oct. 12-16. We had thought the cycle would start from a pullback low into mid-September but that is not looking like the case as it broke out during seasonal strength for Muslim and Hindu buying in September. While we do sense we will easily see 1034 or 1050-60 into the October high, how exactly it gets there may be tricky. The best cycle low appears to be Sept. 21-22 but we are not clear on prices. Pullbacks may be $20 congestive affairs but we could see 971 or 943.80 if something weird happens.
Linear cycles may be inverting and it may be due to the fear cycle that is dominating this money as people are rotating out of stocks into metals during seasonal strength. We are thinking that we may be totally wrong about gold but we still have a linear cycle high due within a few days and if 1020 comes in quickly, then it will have to do a retracement.
OVERALL: We will assume that this market wants to go to 1033 or 1050-60 but it may fake everyone out and fail to accelerate. The good news is that a 5th wave higher into Oct. 15, 2009 should take the market up 140 points from the congestion low on July 8 and that would project 1050-1060. With crude taking off into the October high, we are not sure what higher numbers will come. We do have a large 3-wave retracement due after October into the March 21, 2010 cycle low.
|
|
OCT. e-mini CRUDE (electronic)
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower to 6327.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to 7978 into Oct. 9-12.
NEAR-TERM PATTERNS: (9/1) It appears that the 7912 region may be more likely for the high of the year into Oct. 9-12 if crude can hold the 6220 region. The upper target of 8143 has a 40% chance.
LONGER-TERM PATTERNS: (8/28) We are starting to think that the June 2010 cycle high could be a massive run away high and could easily go to at least 120 or much, much higher. The October high is clearly projecting 8138 or so. Crude has made major highs on decade years -- look back at 1970, 1980 and 1990, 2000 and now 2010. There are world forces that attempt to set the price of crude and the plunge in crude was meant to hurt countries like Venezuela and some other countries. There will be one more gonzo rally before the next inflation cycle highs due around June 5, 2010. The intermediate picture is more complicated but it looks like the June 2010 high may only realistically be at a
minimum of $105 but it could even go to $250-300 are very possible. There are also a number of wild card factors operating.
Firstly, war cycles will increase dramatically from Oct. 2009-May 2010. If the H1N1 flu pandemic hits really hard, it will start earlier deflation in which case the March 2010 secondary low may be much lower. This market has more chances to go up than to go down at times but a fall from Oct. 15, 2009 until late November could plunge the market from 8126 to 55.00 and possibly lead to a congestion triangle into the March "e" wave low due around March 21. From there crude may wildly take to over $100 or much more. Still, it does appear a strong rally from Sept. 17-Oct. 15 could be $20-24 and take the market to a new high to 8126 or max. 85.50.
SHORT TERM PATTERNS: (9/8) Our chart is skewed as the cycle high toward 7978 or 8178 may not come in until Oct. 12 or 16 at the earliest and then we may start a congestion from there. At the moment we are projecting 6278 into the Sept. 22 cycle low. From there a quick sharp rally into Oct. 9-12 is due. The high for the year should be in 8143 by Oct. 12 or a retest Oct. 16 and the best entry should be late September -- possibly as late as Sept. 25 but could be a week earlier.
|
|
About the Author
|
For the past 21 years, Barry Rosen
has been in the business of advising clients on market timing using modern adaptations to certain ancient cycles. His company Fortucast Market Timing Inc. publishes daily and intraday reports on over 20 futures markets, and mutual fund indices/ETFs using Gann, Elliott wave and five cyclical models. Barry predicted the July 15, 2008 low on the S & P to the day, hitting the price within .75 ticks -- and in fact has been forecasting a major break in the stock market of about 33% since January. Timer Digest ranked the Fortucast Alternative Investment Newsletter 6th in long-term timers over the years and 5th for Top Ten Timers between March 2007 and March 2008.
Mr. Rosen is registered with the NFA and the CFTC as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). Fortucast uses proprietary cyclical timing models to filter out false indicators. His opinions on the markets are his own and do not necessarily represent the view of FutureSource. For more information about Mr. Rosen or his company, please visit his company's website: www.fortucast.com.
|
|
Special Message from Our Author
|
