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Fortucast Market Timing

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June 3, 2009

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Sign up to get a complimentary trial of Barry Rosen's daily service, which includes long-term trends for 13 financial futures as they set up. You will also receive information on how to get other complimentary reports from this author, including his coverage of agricultural markets and mutual funds/ETFs and S & P intraday updates and intraday updates for financials and agriculturals. Don't miss out, get the complimentary report today.

Today's Featured Article
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Hot Markets Outlook
By Barry Rosen

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About the Author

Due to space limitations, this article by Fortucast's Barry Rosen provides the author's outlook for only a few markets. Sign up here to get in-depth daily coverage of 13 financial markets with Fortucast's Daily Financial Report.

JUNE S&P e-MINI

DAILY CHART TREND: Max. 980 into June 12-19; retracing to 900 and then higher to 1007 into July.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower from July into August toward 780 or 750 and then higher into early October for a new high and May 2010 for the completion of this first weekly chart swing toward 1060-90.

NEAR TERM: (6/3) We are looking to buy a 20-point pullback over the next few days. Patterns are tricky to read. The market is still likely to stay above 925 or so could issue a more serious breakdown if violates. On the upside we could see a congestion triangle between 925-43 continue and then the market could breakout 26 points higher to anywhere between 960-970. Once that is complete we sense a 3-wave pullback 2nd-wave retracement into Monday before the market would start a 3rd-wave higher into June 15-17 (that is the 3rd wave off of the 886 low). Guessing that 960-70 will come in on Friday.

WEEKLY CHART OVERVIEW: (6/1) 2009-2017: We did new research at the conference and think that the first few weeks of June is topping and that lower action could happen until August 7 and then a slight new high into September or max. early October and then major downward action into November. It is possible that a key turn into July 10th could be a divergent high. The market may be sideways the spring of 2010 and then do a final leap into early May for a new high and then be sharply lower into Dec. 2010. Market may hit 1060 or 1090 by either the Oct 2009 high or the May 2010 high. Breaks to 750 or 780 are the max. we might expect into the August low.

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SEPT. T-NOTES (10 year) (Electronic Version)

BIG PICTURE: (6/2) Linear cycle lows are due this week and have probably come in. We should see a 3-point rally into at least Wednesday, June 10th and then consolidation between 115-118 before a new low develops into late in the month toward June 21. Rallies into the week of July 10th may be insignificant. Chances are higher rate fears will eventually move T-notes down to the 103.12 region with first major support at 112.06.

CHICAGO AUGUST MINI-GOLD (electronic)

HOURLY CHART TREND: retracing toward 967 into Wednesday night.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher to 1034 or more into June 17.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Not clear on July pullback low but it may be shallow to 950 if 1121 comes in first.
MONTHLY CHART TREND: Lower into Feb. 2011 and then higher to 2400-3000 into 2012-13.

NEAR TERM: (6/3) While the market may be vulnerable on Wednesday night and possible Friday, the general trend is higher into late Monday. Closing under 960 would cause an early end. Short-term resistance is at 1000. If crude decides to dump more than to the 6640 or 6550 region, gold may have a problem with that and crude does seem vulnerable later in the week. Metal cycle highs are still due into June 17th but if crude decides to do a bigger correction and take out 6200, then a larger fall on gold is possible.

BIG PICTURE: (529) Some cycles point higher on gold into June 17 followed by a meltdown into the week of July 10 to maybe the 950 region. It depends how high gold rallies and 1120 is starting to become more promising.

MONTHLY CHART TREND: (2/24) We think the dollar will become worthless into 2012-3 and that gold will become king again. Prices project 2400-3000. This is not the time to do an entry on such a trade, as the weekly chart is topping for now, but it will continue to be a long-term investment and seasonally you want to buy in July or mid-August.

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JULY e-mini CRUDE (electronic)

HOURLY CHART TREND: Lower to 6640 and then higher.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher to 7350 into June 17.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to 8000 into July 10 and eventually 9150 into Oct. 2009.
NEAR TERM: (6/3) Crude filled the 6645 gap after the bearish API and DOE reports. The problem is that crude cycles are weak until late Friday and we are concerned of a deeper fall, which might upset much higher projections to 8000 into July. We are not clear of target low by late Friday but a buy will set up on Monday for the next big push up to 73.50..

LONGER-TERM CRUDE OIL CYCLES: (6/1) We are getting projections to 7380 and they could come in by June 15-17 but then the market may back off into the week of July 3 and then shoot up again for a secondary high into July 10 toward the 80.00 region. Inclined to expect lower prices for the complex into July 21. At the moment it seems that higher prices into the week of Oct. 16 would complete a weekly chart high to 9127. With hurricane season just starting, this market is not going to drop that much even when it does do a correction for 2-3 weeks into early July. Longer-term we are even postulating a May 2010 high and a Dec. 2010 low.

DEC. CORN (electronic)

OVERALL: Longer-term cycles for Dec. corn into July project 491.50 and 505. We had hopes for a $3 break in crude to 6640 and to fill a gap there in order to get better entries but at this point 461 is probably the best we will do for buys.

BIG PICTURE: (5/28) Hedging highs for new crop look like they will come in around 505 into the week of July 3 but we will need a hot weather scare and we think it will be there. The 481 region may be it for Dec corn. Already a large number of acres will go from corn into beans because of wetness. A floor will also be there because of late planting, late pollination and dry scares going into pollination into July. Somehow, no matter what, corn rarely holds up past July 4 and sometimes will put in a secondary high by July 13- 15. Remember last year's flooding and the market still topped early last year. If you have July corn hedging needs that need to happen before mid- June, you probably need to be thinking about getting rid of some corn on May 29, as we do see weakness much of the week of June 1-12 and we do not know how quickly it will recover. The "x" factor is crude, which is projecting at least 80.00 at this point. The dollar is close to a major low but a break of 7750 would lead to 7600 and 7150 and we still see lower prices into late July. If crude does not stop, we may not be able to put a hedging high on this market.

GRAIN CYCLE SYNTHESIS: (6/1) We will assume that for the most part, grains will continue higher into June 17 although there will be pauses along the way. Have to see crude hit 73.50. With a July high on crude toward 80.00 that will be the best hedge for grains. We have 505 for Dec. corn and 16.50 on August beans and much higher prices on wheat beyond 735 minimum. These targets may get extended. At this point we will focus on July when crude tops.

About the Author
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For the past 21 years, Barry Rosen has been in the business of advising clients on market timing using modern adaptations to certain ancient cycles. His company Fortucast Market Timing Inc. publishes daily and intraday reports on over 20 futures markets, and mutual fund indices/ETFs using Gann, Elliott wave and five cyclical models. Barry predicted the July 15, 2008 low on the S & P to the day, hitting the price within .75 ticks -- and in fact has been forecasting a major break in the stock market of about 33% since January. Timer Digest ranked the Fortucast Alternative Investment Newsletter 6th in long-term timers over the years and 5th for Top Ten Timers between March 2007 and March 2008.

Mr. Rosen is registered with the NFA and the CFTC as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). Fortucast uses proprietary cyclical timing models to filter out false indicators. His opinions on the markets are his own and do not necessarily represent the view of FutureSource. For more information about Mr. Rosen or his company, please visit his company's website: www.fortucast.com.

Special Message from Our Author
----------

Sign up to get a complimentary trial of Barry Rosen's daily service, which includes long-term trends for 13 financial futures as they set up. You will also receive information on how to get other complimentary reports from this author, including his coverage of agricultural markets and mutual funds/ETFs and S & P intraday updates and intraday updates for financials and agriculturals. Don't miss out, get the complimentary report today.

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